MacNN | Apple may beat consensus on iPhones, see slow growth on iPads
Mac News Network View: Standard | Headlines | Categorized | Slim
Mac News Network
Mac News iPod News Reviews Forums

Desktop Headlines
Apple may beat consensus on iPhones, see slow growth on iPads
Wednesday, July 17, 2013 @ 7:30pm

Apple's fiscal third-quarter results will be revealed on July 23, but analysis consensus estimates are already in from Wall Street and independent analysts, and as usual predictions vary widely. However, the averages reveal that across the spectrum analysts predict modest growth for Apple's two most popular products, with an opportunity for the company to beat consensus estimates. A group of 48 analysts both traditional and independent surveyed by Fortune believe Apple will sell 27 million iPhones and 18 million iPads.

If those estimates turn out to be accurate, expect AAPL stock to take a beating even though they would represent modest growth from the year-ago quarter (4.3 percent and 6.2 percent respectively). The reason is that despite selling more units, the rate of growth -- particularly on iPads -- will be far less than the growth rate last year (about 28 percent and 113 percent respectively). The adjustment made last year to bring out iPhone and iPad models at about the same time -- just ahead of the holiday buying season -- means that Apple's fiscal Q3 and Q4 now suffer from not having any fresh models of the two most popular products. Though Apple may well release updated Mac products before the end of the current quarter, it announced its most recent product refresh -- the Haswell-equipped MacBook Air -- near the end of fiscal Q3, meaning its sales will have minimal impact on Apple's numbers. With no "blockbuster" products on tap until near the end of Q4, sales will continue to dip over the summer as consumers wait for new or refreshed models. Instead, the company must rely on expansion of its current product line to drive growth. The iPhone 5 continues to do remarkably well in North America, particularly for a nine-month-old model -- even stealing share away from more recent competitors like the Samsung Galaxy S4. However, in some other parts of the world the news isn't as rosy: all three major Russian carriers recently dropped the iPhone, citing high subsidies that were unsupportable in its economy. Rumors have the iPhone doing less well in Europe as well. Nevertheless, at least one analyst believes that the iPhone line -- bolstered by surprising strength of the iPhone 4S and 4 in both North America and developing markets -- could beat analyst expectations even if the company hits financial targets. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty told investors that her sources believe Apple may have sold between 29 and 32 million units, and that its possible this could push revenue up above $36 billion, beating the consensus of $35.1 billion, AppleInsider reports. As for iPads, the company again may be able to beat analysts' estimates. The consensus of 18.1 million iPads still represents 6.2 percent growth year-over-year, but most independent analysts -- who have traditionally been more accurate than Wall Street in their predictions -- feel the number could be somewhat higher. Taking their figures alone, the estimate jumps to 20 million units. Sadly, even if Apple were to do as well as the most optimistic predictions of 22 million iPads, it would still be seen as a "saturation" of the market barring a new model, since growth rates would still be well below last year's 28 percent. Despite the fact that new models and other products coming in the fall timeframe practically guarantee another record holiday season for the company, analysts are impatient for products that will stimulate sales. They worry that even with an assured forthcoming record quarter, competition worldwide may continue to eat at Apple's dominance of its two most key markets, smartphones and tablets -- further eroding sales in quarters when new models aren't announced. The company has felt pressure on the smartphone front primarily from cheaper models, prompting wide speculation that Apple may produce a less-expensive version of the iPhone. In tablets, however, a serious threat has yet to materialize even more than three years after the original iPad was introduced, and sales of the iPad mini may be the key to any gain on analyst estimates Apple could produce. One important area where Apple will hope to beat estimates is in overall revenue. Wall Street is expecting nearly flat growth or revenue year-over-year, thanks to some discounting of iPhones in developing markets and a lower profit margin on the iPhone 5 and iPad mini. However, profits from the iTunes stores -- which are said to be growing at an impressive rate -- may offset lower hardware profits and even push Apple slightly upwards on revenue growth.

Comments on this Article
Print Friendly Version
Email to a Friend
Add MacNN to Your RSS Feeds
Buy from the Apple Store

Related Stories:

Today's MacNN Stories:

  • App deals for iOS: Money Pro, Net Master (free), Toca titles - 9:35 PM EST
  • App deals for OS X: Alien Isolation, ScaleMaster, Money Pro, more - 9:25 PM EST
  • - 6:20 PM EST
  • Google wins against Oracle in Java API copyright lawsuit - 4:31 PM EST
  • GraphicConverter 10 ships with facial recognition, Photos add-on - 3:15 PM EST
  • Daily Deals: $200 3D printer, Audio-Technica headphones, 4TB NAS drive - 2:53 PM EST
  • - 2:26 PM EST
  • VirnetX asks court to block FaceTime and iMessage, raise Apple damages - 2:10 PM EST
  • Google to build self-driving R&D center in Detroit - 12:59 PM EST
  • Linksys ships high-end MU-MIMO router, range extender - 12:00 PM EST
  • Hands On: Alfred 3 (OS X) - 11:45 AM EST
  • MacNN Deals: Learn to code with these four development course bundles - 11:22 AM EST
  • Apple reportedly considered Time Warner acquisition last year - 10:40 AM EST
  • Pixelmator 3.5 'Canyon' arrives on Mac App Store - 10:15 AM EST
  • Technically Speaking: SSD and HDD - 9:46 AM EST
  • India rejects Apple Store exemption request, Apple Stores in doubt - 9:40 AM EST
  • Hands On: Satechi Waterproof IPX8 iPad Mini Case - 9:36 AM EST
  • The Big Deal: Grab this collection of commercial fonts for free - 9:01 AM EST
  • Apple drops Safari Technology Preview release 5 - 8:41 AM EST
  • Apple investigating charging stations for electric cars - 8:10 AM EST
  • Energy concerns over Apple's Irish data center plans under debate - 7:45 AM EST
  • Apple supplier Foxconn culls 60,000 workers for robots - 6:51 AM EST
  • One More Thing episode 40: IO, IO, it's off to work we go - 6:50 AM EST

    Today's iPodNN Stories:
  • So long, and thanks for everything! - 2:31 PM EST
  • Lizard Squad member convicted over 50,700 computer crime charges - 9:58 AM EST
  • Microsoft offers grants to universities for HoloLens research - 7:25 AM EST
  • LG Display starts mass production of AIT display panels for notebooks - 7:47 AM EST
  • Briefly: EE fined £1M in UK, Unofficial YouTube app on Android Wear - 11:14 AM EST
  • No comments posted on this story yet. Please post yours.
    Your Comments
    In order to post comments, you must be a registered member of the MacNN Forums and logged in. Please login with your MacNN Forums username and password.

    MacNN Forums Login:

    MacNN Forums Password:

    Not a member of the MacNN forums? Register now for free.